Hold the launch calendar and the core range.
Launches set the rhythm of the year, core lines make the volume. These two logics call for different forecasting methods, and rarely sit in the same tool.
What we hear
The topics that keep coming up in beauty.
A launch is run like an event, a core line like a flow. Generalist tools handle one or the other well, rarely both together.
- The launch calendar is decided in marketing, supply finds out too late
- Core lines make most of the volume but get whatever attention is left
- A use-by date turns overstock into a write-off, not a markdown
- Gift sets and limited editions live for weeks against a supply cycle of months
- Each market has its own regulatory frame, and therefore its own permitted assortment
- Forecasting happens at SKU level, budget trade-offs happen at brand level
In practice
A launch plan screen.
The launch calendar, service level on core lines and SKUs nearing their use-by date all sit on the same view.
Launch calendar
Illustration of a launch plan. Fictional data.
What we put in place
What we put in place in beauty.
Launch plan
Calendar, launch volumes and supply milestones tied to on-shelf dates.
Core line forecasting
SKU-level forecasting, realigned on actual sell-out, by market and channel.
Cover and shelf life
Expiry projected against sales velocity, early enough to act.
Multi-market supply
A plan per market accounting for regulatory assortments and customs lead times.
Gift sets and limited editions
Long commitment, short life. Volume and date locked before launch.
Margin by brand
P&L by brand and channel, including promotions and free goods.